Bruce Bueno de Mesquite uses mathematical analysis and game theory to predict war, political events, power shifts, etc. His work is controversial – but shockingly accurate. In the video below, he speaks at TED making three predictions on the future of Iran. Take a look.
His most interesting point in his talk was that international players – such as the United States – are making it MORE likely that Iran will pursue nuclear weapons.
CODEPINK has already witnessed this in practice. During CODEPINK’S citizen diplomacy trip to Iran last November, several of our delegates were surprised to discover that Iran was pursuing renewable energy sources – specifically wind. As environmental blogger Karl Burkart points out, wind energy would not only provide cleaner energy to Iran. It would also help relieve pressure for Iran to pursue their nuclear program, while freeing up their precious oil reserves for export.
The Sabo Niroo Wind Company, based in Tehran, manufactures medium and large wind turbines. But due to US and EU sanctions, its Danish supplier Vestas, which produces parts for the turbines, stopped sending supplies to Iran, halting production. Without alternatives, how can we expect Iran to end its nuclear program?
Studies have shown that sanctions harm civilians and only garner positive foreign policy results only 13 percent of the time. We need to create a new policy toward Iran. The United States should lift the sanctions on Iran and we need to call upon Obama to live up to his campaign promise to hold direct, unconditional talks with Iran as soon as possible.
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